GIGO as a General Rule for Information Processing

Abstract by ChatGP

The essay “GIGO as a General Rule for Information Processing” argues that the principle of “garbage in, garbage out” (GIGO) is a fundamental rule of information processing that applies to various domains, including computer science, psychology, and social science. The author contends that GIGO highlights the importance of input quality in determining the accuracy and validity of output, and that this principle can be used as a guideline for decision-making and problem-solving. Additionally, the essay suggests that GIGO can be applied to personal development, emphasizing the significance of the information and experiences we allow into our lives. Overall, the author asserts that GIGO serves as a valuable principle for individuals and organizations to consider in their pursuit of effective information processing and decision-making.

Overview

All assertions are subject to GIGO, that is Garbage In gives Garbage Out, no matter how impeccable the logic. Folks think this is just a rule for computers. It ain’t. Simple reflection should make you see the point that a huge amount of what we believe is wrong. Read the comments section on any Internet article, on any moderately controversial topic, where comments are allowed. The comments will be all over the map. Some you may agree with; many you will disagree with. Regardless of your own views, they cannot all be correct where they are mutually contradictory. It does not follow that any are correct, although some may be. It does not follow that you may be correct, but you may be. Any training database is going to be built up from information that follows the same pattern. Some (maybe much) will contain contradictions (even internal ones). Some of the assertions may be correct, but where they differ, they cannot all be correct. So, a lot of the training data is bound to be wrong, that is Garbage In. The clear result is garbage out.

If we had the omniscient one preparing the training data, we might get more reliable results.

I do not see a way around these fundamental issues, regardless of how incredible is the technology, and it is incredible. The issues are epistemological. Perhaps I misunderstand the issue, but I cannot see how any technology or biological organism can get around this.

From the horse’s mouth, or maybe some other orifice:

Input to ChatGPT:

Explain how GIGO must of necessity apply to ChatGPT output.

Output from ChatGPT:

GIGO, which stands for “Garbage In, Garbage Out,” is a principle that refers to the fact that the quality of output is determined by the quality of input. In the case of ChatGPT, this means that the quality of the model’s responses is directly influenced by the quality of the data it was trained on, as well as the input it receives during use.

While ChatGPT is a highly advanced language model with remarkable abilities to generate human-like responses to various inputs, it is not a sentient being capable of understanding the meaning of the input it receives. Instead, it relies on statistical patterns and associations in its training data to generate responses.

Therefore, if the input to ChatGPT is inaccurate, incomplete, or biased in any way, the model may produce responses that are also inaccurate, incomplete, or biased. Additionally, if the training data is of poor quality, contains errors or biases, or is not representative of the language and concepts it is meant to model, this can also lead to inferior output from ChatGPT.

In summary, GIGO applies to ChatGPT output because the quality of its output is inherently linked to the quality of the input it receives and the quality of the training data it was trained on. Therefore, it is important to ensure that the inputs provided to ChatGPT are of high quality and that the training data is well-prepared and representative of the language and concepts the model is intended to understand.

Input to ChatGPT:

Given that the law of contradictions holds that two contradictory assertions can not both be correct, it follows that from multiple contradictory assertions at most one can be correct. It does not follow that any are correct. Human assertions are notoriously diverse and mutually contradictory. Material in magazines, article, reviews, and comments on these tracts is also notoriously diverse and mutually contradictory. The Internet published works gives innumerable examples of this. This is the base of information from which ChatGPT works. It uses no intelligence, and even though the training material is curated by humans, they are subject to their own limitations such as many types of bias, a limited understanding of the world, which is the human condition, and the inability to deal with the complex mass of information available to them. All information must be evaluated, interpreted, with an eye to making sense of this. This is a highly unreliable process, even for the brightest. Couple that with the fact that the body of knowledge of any discipline is bound to be highly flawed, incomplete and often wrong both, how is it possible for anyone to rely on the information returned by ChatGPT?

Output from ChatGPT:

You make an important point that human assertions can be diverse and contradictory, and that the information on the internet and other sources can be unreliable or incomplete. This is indeed a significant challenge for any system, including ChatGPT, that relies on these sources of information.

However, it’s worth noting that ChatGPT is not designed to provide definitive or absolute answers to complex questions. Instead, it is a tool that can provide insights, suggestions, or alternative perspectives on a given topic. It can help users explore different viewpoints, generate ideas, and identify potential sources of information.

In other words, ChatGPT is not intended to replace critical thinking or independent research. Rather, it is a tool that can augment and support these activities. Users should not rely on ChatGPT as the sole source of information for important decisions or complex problems. Instead, they should approach the information provided by ChatGPT with a critical eye, and seek to verify and validate any information that they receive.

Moreover, ChatGPT is not infallible, and its responses can sometimes be inaccurate or biased. As you correctly note, the limitations of the training data and the biases of its creators can affect its performance. Therefore, it is important to use ChatGPT with a healthy dose of skepticism, and to verify its responses whenever possible.

In summary, while ChatGPT can be a useful tool for generating ideas and exploring different perspectives, it is not a substitute for critical thinking, independent research, and careful evaluation of information. Users should approach its responses with a critical eye and seek to verify and validate any information that they receive.

 

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Group Think versus Independent Think

Some Rambling Thinks

Thoughts on Group Thought versus Independent Thought

 There are pressures moving us towards conformity of thought and behaviour. People look for affirmation; being cast out from the pack is lonely. We have various expressions related to this:

  • Don’t rock the boat
  • Don’t make waves
  • Go along to get along
  • The nail that sticks up gets hammered down (Japanese saying)

Some folks seem to embrace heterodox thinking, are just natural contrarians.[1] These are the independent thinkers, the dissidents. Other folks gravitate towards orthodox views; playing it safe they go with the group consensus, perhaps never questioning it.  I will call these the group thinkers, the conformists.

In addition, some folks don’t question much, are very unreflective. Others are more intellectually aware, curious, challenging dogma. I regard this unreflective – reflective dimension as separate from the conformist – dissident dimension.

I make somewhat of a caricature of these positions, using a matrix. I have made an assumption, which is not really tenable, that dissidents are the good guys. Clearly this is necessarily not true.

Conformist Dissident
 

Unreflective

 

Unthinking

·         True believer

·         Blindly obedient

·         Useful idiot

·         Heedless of costs and benefits

·         Reckless

·         Loose cannon

·         Naive about consequences

·         Heedless of costs and benefits

 

Reflective

 

Views studied and well considered

·         Opportunistic actions

·         Cynic

·         Not spiritual

·         Looks for the bad

·         Sneers at the good

·         Often cowardly

·         Aware of costs and benefits

·         Principled actions

·         Not cynical

·         Spiritual

·         Looks for the good

·         Regrets the bad

·         Must be brave

·         Aware of costs and benefits

Thoughts on Group Thought versus Independent Thought

The Unreflective Conformist

The unreflective conformist is not a deep thinking individual, and has an unconsidered adherence to popular views. They go with the flow, and don’t question much of anything. They are really pretty heedless of the implications of the positions that they take. We might regard them as:

  • True believers
  • Blindly obedient
  • Useful idiot
  • Heedless of costs and benefits

The Reflective Conformist

The reflective conformist has studied and considered the positions that he espouses. He does so in rather cynical fashion. He may not believe what the group believes, or he may believe, but he seeks his own advantage over concerns for truth or integrity. Consider these folks as having these characteristics:

  • Not spiritual
  • Opportunists
  • Cynical
  • Looks for the bad
  • Sneers at the good
  • Maybe cowardly
  • Aware at some level of the costs and benefits of conformity and dissidence

The Unreflective Dissident

The unreflective dissident seems to be a contrarian, but is not very sophisticated in his understanding of the issues, an unthinking sort of dissidence. You might characterize such a person as:

  • Reckless, a bit of a loose cannon
  • Shoots from the lip
  • Naive about consequences
  • Heedless of costs and benefits of conformity and dissidence

The Reflective Dissident

The reflective dissident has studied and well considered his positions and the consequences of speaking out. He might be characterized as follows:

  • Principled actions
  • Not cynical
  • Spiritual
  • Looks for the good
  • Regrets the bad
  • Must be brave
  • Aware of costs and benefits

This as I have said is a bit of a caricature, but it has some truth as well I believe.

Finding Truth

I have given up on epistemology and ontology as being mostly not useful in understanding the world, but there is much to be learned about the psychology and sociology of belief.

There are psychological mechanisms underlying group think. These would include, in no particular order:

  • Group loyalties
  • Indoctrination and propaganda
  • Cultural beliefs
  • Cognitive bias

Each is worth an extended discussion but I will leave that for another time. The list is incomplete in any case.

Random Thoughts on Truth and Belief

The individual, conformist or dissident, may be wrong. The group, mainstream or contrarian, may be wrong.

Dissidents may be alone at first but eventually they may find a group of more of less like-minded folks. Are they then just subject to a different group think?

The history of the world, science included, is a history of mistaken beliefs. Mutually contradictory views of people can not be completely right. It goes to say that at most one of mutually contradictory opinions may be correct but it does not follow that any are correct.

The number of ways of being wrong must vastly exceed the number of ways of being right. We call this Murphy’s Law I believe.

Are you a dissident or just a crank? Are you a rationalist, or conspiracy theorist? There is seldom an objective test for any of these. Although some believe they can make such judgements reliably, I suspect that they are often kidding themselves.

Thoughts on Evidence and Reasoning

Evidence must be interpreted within the framework of what you currently believe. However, you will probably never have all of the evidence. Also, evidence coming at a later date may change your evaluation of events. Evidence must be assessed for reliability, provenance, its overall worth and it will be subject to interpretation, with a strong component of subjectivity.

Thoughts on Costs and Benefits

There may be costs and benefits to holding fast to your views, regardless of the truth of your beliefs. There are costs and there are benefits to being a group thinker, and also to being an independent thinker. Below I suggest some possibilities in a matrix.

Conformity

 

Dissidence
Costs There are costs to being a conformist:

·         Creative thought may be squelched

·         You may follow the herd over the metaphorical cliff

·         May be more less ethical, failing to call out malfeasance

·         End up in collusion with malefactors, perhaps criminal actions, becoming complicit

·         If the group is wrong about things, you may not find the flaws and feel free to point them out.

·         You may suffer stress if you realize you are living a lie

 

 

There are costs to being a dissident. Dissidence is often punished if openly expressed:

·         Social penalties, loss of relationships, marginalization, alienation from your fellows

·         Health impacts (stress, and now, denial of treatment for the dissidents)

·         Psychological (stress, self-esteem, doubts, anger, depression)

·         Financial penalties

·         Career penalties

·         Legal troubles

Benefits There are benefits to being a conformist

·         Conformity is rewarded by the group

·         Your career may benefit

·         People will accept you as one of the group

·         By going along, you may get along

There are benefits to being a dissident

·         Creative thought may be encouraged

·         Seeing more clearly

·         Service to the world if you are right and you message is heard

·         Way to avoid the march of folly

·         May be more ethical, calling out malfeasance

·         Avoid collusion with malefactors, perhaps criminal actions, avoid complicity

·         Most big advances in the world, science, technology, art, and so on, are due to folks who departed from the standard consensus about reality, and saw things with fresh eyes.

·         If the group is wrong about things, only those of independent minds will find the flaws and point them out.

 

Below, I briefly discuss the costs and benefits to both conformity and dissidence, with examples.

Costs of Conformity

 There are costs to being a conformist:

  • Creative thought may be squelched
  • You may follow the herd over the metaphorical cliff
  • May be more less ethical, failing to call out malfeasance
  • End up in collusion with malefactors, perhaps criminal actions, becoming complicit
  • If the group is wrong about things, you may not find the flaws and feel free to point them out.
  • You may suffer stress if you realize you are living a lie

Benefits of Conformity

There are reasons why someone is happy being a conformist, there are benefits to not rocking the boat. Conformity is rewarded by the group in various ways. For instance:

  • People will accept you as one of the group
  • By going along, you will get along
  • You won’t have to think as hard
  • You will avoid the unease resulting from being the odd man out
  • Your career may benefit
  • Your social life may benefit
  • You will be seen as a “team player”

Costs of Dissidence

 There are costs to being a dissident. Dissidence is often punished if openly expressed:

  • There may be social penalties such as the loss of relationships, marginalization, alienation from your fellows
  • There can be health impacts due to stress, and as is happening now, denial of treatment for dissidents
  • There can be psychological with stress, lowered self-esteem, doubts, anger and depression
  • There might be financial penalties due to loss of career, or in current times, loss of job and no unemployment insurance
  • There might even be legal troubles if you rock the boat too much

Benefits of Dissidence

On the plus site, there are benefits to being a dissident. These might include:

  • More creativity.
  • Seeing the world more clearly
  • Most of the big advances in the world in science, technology, art, and so on, are due to folks who departed from the consensus about reality, and saw things with fresh eyes.
  • Helping make the world a better place, providing that you are right and your message is heard
  • Preventing people from taking a march of folly. If the group is wrong about things, only those of independent minds will find the flaws and point them out.
  • Acting in a ethical manner, being a whistle blower and calling out malfeasance
  • Not colluding with bad actors, perhaps criminals, avoiding complicity

I suppose that I could expand on these points with concrete examples. This would of course require some actual research, references, time and effort. I will leave it as it is for now.

[1] My mother insisted that if she said “salt,” I would have to say “pepper.”  Things have not changed much over the decades, except I am more aware that I may be full of it

B.C. GOVERNMENT BACKS DOWN ON FORCED VACCINES FOR HEALTH PROFESSIONALS

B.C. GOVERNMENT BACKS DOWN ON FORCED VACCINES FOR HEALTH PROFESSIONALS
Several weeks ago, Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry told all B.C. Health Professionals they would have to get vaccinated if they wanted to continue practicing.  Today, March 7, she and the BC government completely backed away from that order.  One reason the government backed down is that many of the affected groups hired lawyers to protect their rights.  
 
Below are a few quotes from a letter the legal firm Doak Shirreff, hired to represent ‘a large group of BC psychologists’ sent to the Legal Services Branch of the Ministry of Justice and Attorney General.  Many of the comments in this letter raise serious questions about what the people of British Columbia have been told over the past many months by our media and governments.  
1..  “We represent a large group of B.C. psychologistswho are very concerned about the Announcement and the harmful 
effect it will have on themselves, their staff, their patients and the general public if they are required to be vaccinated for 
COVID19 as of March 24, 2022 in order to be able to continue to work ..
 
2..  “Our clients have worked safely throughout the pandemic, without any evidence of increased risk of infectionor 
transmissionbetween themselves and theirstaffor their patients.”
 
3..  “Dr. Bonnie Henry has acknowledged that the COVID-19 vaccines do not prevent infection or transmission of the virus. 
In preamble G. of her November 18, 2021 health order … she admitted that vaccinated people could still be infected 
with, and transmit the virus.”
 
4.. “Careful inspection of the recent COVID-19 cases counts and vaccination status in recent data fromPublic Health Ontario 
also shows higher rates of COVID-19 in the double vaccinated population than the unvaccinated population, even when 
adjusted per capita.”
 
5.. “There is good evidence to suggest that natural immunity is much stronger and durable than any limited protection offered 
by the vaccines. A comprehensive paper written by many of Canada’s top scientists and academics in immunogenetics, 
immunotoxicology, viral immunology, molecular virology, pathobiology, neuroscience and neurology, referencing 
numerous peer-reviewed published studies, confirms this fact.”
 
6.. “Anarticle published in the Lancet in January 2022 indicatesthat recent studies show that there is no significant difference 
in transmission of the virus between vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. Another study published in the Lancet on 
February 7, 2022concluded that natural immunity … provides far superior protection than vaccination.”
 
7.. “Many countries have abandoned their vaccine requirements or are in the process of doing so,including:Austria, Iceland, 
United Kingdom, Scotland, Ireland, Denmark, Sweden, Mexico, El Salvador, Finland, Switzerland, the Netherlands, 
Belgium, the Czech Republic, Norway, Italy, Germany, South Africa, Jordan, Israel, Cypress and others. With Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario,Québec, PEI, New Brunswick,and Nova Scotiaalso starting to remove vaccine mandates or announcing that they will be doing so shortly, why is BC going in the opposite direction? What science is BC relying upon that isdifferent from that which is informing other Governments?”
 
8.. “Let us examine all cause mortality data from the randomized control trial data (i.e., gold standard evidence) from Pfizer 
released to the FDA involving over 40,000 participants.Experimental data clearly shows that the vaccine group did not 
save any more lives than the placebo group…”
 
9.. “Data published by the UK Health Security Agency on February 22, 2022 shows that the fully vaccinated account for 9 
out of every 10 COVID-19 deaths in England, and 4 of 5 deaths among the triple-vaccinated. This data does not 
support statements made by Dr. Bonnie Henry that the vaccines are reducing the severity of symptoms in infected 
individuals and in fact discloses a disturbing trend.”
 
10..  “A Freedom of Information request made to the BC government on November 10, 2021, requested information to support 
statements made by Dr. Bonnie Henry in her October 21, 2021 … public health order. . The BC Government replied on February 10, 2022 to advise that no such information or data could be found. 
 
11..A Freedom of Information request made to the BC Government regarding hospitalization figures from January 1, 2015 
up to and including March 31, 2021 resulted in a response from the BC government demonstrating thathospitalization 
numbers have actually decreased since the beginning of the pandemic from what they were in the 5 years before the 
pandemic.
This information contradicts the statements of Dr. Bonnie Henry that BC hospitals experienced a significant 
increase in the number of hospitalizations as a result of Covid 19 patients that was overwhelming the health care system. 
 
12..  “If the B.C. Government intends to proceed with expansion of vaccine mandates to include psychologists in private 
practice, as well as all other healthcare providers, our clients would appreciate receiving the science and information 
that the Government is relying upon to justify its decision” 

 
We look forward to hearing from you. 
Yours truly, 
DOAK SHIRREFF LAWYERS LLP 

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Email to the Governor General of Canada

Please send an email to the Governor General, requesting resignation of the Prime Minister and forward it to friends.

Sample:

Subject: My Non-Confidence in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
To: Mary Simon, Governor General of Canada

 

Your Excellency,

I wish to express my non-confidence in our Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau. Please have him removed because he is a danger to the freedom of the citizens of our beloved country, Canada.

Respectfully yours,
<Name>
<Street Address>
<City>
<Postal Code>

Do not pass the Emergencies Act – Sample Letter to Senators

—– Forwarded Message —–


 
 
👇 Sample letter included below so you don’t have to write anything or better yet, modify to suit.


If the Emergencies Act is approved in Parliament, it must THEN be passed in the Senate. Our fate, and the Truckers fate- lies in their hands.
If you can’t find them there here is Action4Canada’s list of senators address
Writing the Senate is MOST important but also try to cc  your own or all premiers address here

Dear Senators,

As you are aware, our Prime Minister has proposed the Emergencies Act which must first be passed in Parliament and then through the Senate.  As a Canadian citizen, I implore you NOT to pass this Act.  Why?

1)    Section 2 (c) of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms guarantees the freedom of “peaceful assembly.” [1] It is one of the fundamental freedoms protected in the Charter.
2)    The Emergency Act is meant to

protect the “safety and security of the individual, the protection of the values of the body politic and the preservation of the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of the state are fundamental obligations of government; AND WHEREAS the fulfilment of those obligations in Canada may be seriously threatened by a national emergency.”
The truckers are not preventing the government from getting on with the business of governing.  No Ottawa citizen or member of Parliament are being “seriously threatened.” The truckers are protecting the values and freedoms of Canadian citizens that are slowly being eroded, and preserving their rights of bodily autonomy and medical sovereignty.  The truckers’ peaceful protest does not meet the threshold for a “national emergency” as defined in the Act.

3)    These hard-working Freedom Convoy Truckers—the ones who deliver our food and other goods day in and day out– have been peaceful, respectful and law-abiding.  They are not violent nor have they destroyed property.  On the contrary, they have cleared the streets of snow and garbage, and crime in the City of Ottawa has plummeted since their arrival.
4)    As per the request of the Ottawa police, the Convoy has left a lane open for emergency vehicles.  They have stopped the honking of horns.
5)    Theirs is a simple, common sense request at the 2-year mark of this “pandemic”—stop all COVID restrictions which have negatively impacted our children, our economy, our health and our society; restrictions which have been shown to have little, if any, impact on “flattening the curve”.
6)    The pandemic is over.  Omicron creates mild symptoms. It’s time to resume normal life once again without fear.
7)    Our hospitals are not overwhelmed. Period.
8)    These patriotic men and women have left their homes and family for a cause that is held dearly by ALL Canadians. They have inspired a nationwide and international movement in the drive for freedom.  All national and global attention sits squarely on Canada at this historical moment in time.  Where will each of you take your seat in history?

There are a growing number of  countries, states and jurisdictions which have lifted all COVID restriction and yet we are going to war with the people.


Senators, there is no need to escalate what is currently a civil, peaceful, legal protest (albeit with vehicles illegally parked and ticketed).  There is a practical political solution.  It just needs adequate time and patience to unfold.  Please allow it to come to its logical conclusion rather than creating an indelible stain on our Canadian history by passing the Emergencies Act. 

Do not pass the Emergencies Act
I look forward to hearing from you,
Sincerely yours,

Risk – threats and opportunities

From  2020-07-18, in terse point form.

Risk

  • There is a calculus of risk
  • Threats are downside risk
  • Opportunities are upside risks
  • Risk has odds and risk has outcomes
  • Odds are measured as probabilities
  • Outcomes are measured as impacts, favourable and unfavourable
  • We can to some extent manage risk, looking at potential impacts, reducing or enhancing the outcomes.

Risk is the stuff of life

  • There is a yin and yang of risk
  • We can avoid threats but perhaps miss opportunities.
  • We can embrace opportunities and perhaps expose ourselves to threats.
  • There are common everyday risks: to health, travel, jobs, having a shower, climbing a ladder, walking down the stairs, recreation, many domains of life
  • There are rare risks beyond our control in many ways such as natural disasters like tornados and earthquakes
  • Driving a car presents both threat and opportunity
  • The same for swimming in a lake, stepping outside, or staying inside.
  • There is a calculus of risk and opportunity

Who are the pros at risk management?

 

Risk managers may be found as:

  • Disaster response planners
  • Actuaries
  • Project managers
  • Financial experts
  • Statisticians

 

Professionals manage risks in a systematic way. Although they may use a formal plan, methods will differ, according to the discipline and its needs, and the training of the risk manager. A management approach might include the following elements:

 

  1. Plan to manage the risks
  2. Prepare for the execution of the plan
  3. Execute the plan
  4. Revise the plan based on new information

 

Some risk managers, such as project managers, focus mostly on threats. Some, such as investors, focus also on opportunities. Financial forecasters, actuaries, disaster planners, entrepreneurs and surely others, each seek their own balance between threat and opportunity.

Why?

  • Why concern yourself with this?
  • You can get by without using this level of discipline in your daily life.
  • We assess risk all of the time but do we do it rationally?
  • We do informally assess threats and opportunities all of the time in daily living, and in planning for the future.
  • If knowledge of the methods improves the accuracy, gives greater success, there is a better cost benefit.
  • Risk management can give a better response to opportunities and threats.
  • There’s less unnecessary panic and more reasoned actions.
  • Done well a group can be more successful; obviously a good thing.
  • However you don’t have to be a pro to use this thinking.

Odds

 

  • Look at the odds
  • Events have odds, reduce or enhance the odds of events
  • Outcomes have odds, reduce or enhance the odds of outcomes
  • There are ways that things can go wrong and there are ways that things can go right
  • The ways that things can go right is small
  • The ways that things could go wrong is large
  • There is a ratio of good to bad and the ratio is huge
  • There are everyday threats and opportunities
  • There are rare threats and opportunities
  • Black swan events are rare events that we have not been able to anticipate.
  • Odds lead to predictions but these have a poor record of success in many fields.
  • Predictions are based on probabilities
  • We calculate odds based on data or do some intuitive wild ass guess (SWAG)
  • Statistician calculate odds: frequentists calculate statistics one way; Bayesian’s calculate statistics another way

Outcomes

 

  • What are the potential impacts?
  • We can get rewarded, we can get punished
  • Identify positive and negative outcomes

Costs and Benefits

 

Do a cost and benefit analysis on the outcomes

  • There is a cost to managing risk
  • There is a cost to missed opportunities
  • There is a cost to missed threats
  • There is a benefit to realized opportunities
  • There is a benefit to managed threats

 

  Threat Opportunity
Missed Cost Cost
Hit Benefit Benefit

Management Matrix

 

  • Predictability and unpredictability give you odds we can chart
  • We can have impacts on some scale from low to high
  • We can have odds on some scale from low to high
  • Impact with low odds are things we should devote little time to
  • Impact with high odds are things that we should give a lot of tender loving care to
  • Low impact and low odds are things we should not waste our time with
  • Low impact but high odds are something we should devote some time to

 

    Threat Impact
    Low High
Threat Odds High Light management Manage well
Low Ignore Light management

 

    Opportunity Impact
    Low High
Opportunity Odds High Light management Manage well
Low Ignore Light management

 

Managing to a Plan

Plan to manage the risks

 

There is a certain way of thinking about risk

  • Prepare emergency response plans
  • Change the odds – reduce or increase the odds
  • Avoid – avoid negative outcomes
  • Accept – We can accept risk and not try to manage it
  • Mitigate negative outcomes – mitigate negative outcomes
  • Enhance positive outcomes – seek or enhance positive outcomes

Identify threats and opportunities

  • Assess things
  • Look at business and life risks
  • Identify potential events both favourable and unfavourable

Quantify

  • Potential impacts, good and bad
  • Odds for impacts

Prioritize

  • Some risks are manageable, some are not

Decide how to manage

  • Accept
  • Avoid if possible
  • Mitigate if possible

Identify trigger events

  • What are you going to look for, to alert you that some action is needed?

Write it all down

  • Unless you are totally intuitive, with a fantastic memory put your thoughts into written form

Prepare for the execution of the plan

  • Get your ducks in a row
  • Obtain necessary resources and supports
  • Trial runs
  • Train responses
  • Drill responses

Execute the plan

  • Execute response plans
  • Identify potential events both anticipated and unanticipated
  • Look at emergent potential risk both positive and negative
  • Monitor the environment, look for emerging trends
  • Assess ongoing changes
  • Manage the plan and the responses
  • Look for triggers during execution

Revise the plan based on new information

  • In light of ongoing experience, improve the plan
  • Adapt to changed circumstances

Conclusion

  • Which door would you choose? The one that leads to the tiger or the one that leads the diamonds?
  • Black clouds may have a silver lining; it follows that silver linings may have black clouds.
  • Within threats, there may be opportunities and within opportunities, there may be threats.
  • Be cautious, be courageous, and assess your risks well.
  • Life is like that.