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Group Think versus Independent Think

Some Rambling Thinks

Thoughts on Group Thought versus Independent Thought

 There are pressures moving us towards conformity of thought and behaviour. People look for affirmation; being cast out from the pack is lonely. We have various expressions related to this:

  • Don’t rock the boat
  • Don’t make waves
  • Go along to get along
  • The nail that sticks up gets hammered down (Japanese saying)

Some folks seem to embrace heterodox thinking, are just natural contrarians.[1] These are the independent thinkers, the dissidents. Other folks gravitate towards orthodox views; playing it safe they go with the group consensus, perhaps never questioning it.  I will call these the group thinkers, the conformists.

In addition, some folks don’t question much, are very unreflective. Others are more intellectually aware, curious, challenging dogma. I regard this unreflective – reflective dimension as separate from the conformist – dissident dimension.

I make somewhat of a caricature of these positions, using a matrix. I have made an assumption, which is not really tenable, that dissidents are the good guys. Clearly this is necessarily not true.

Conformist Dissident
 

Unreflective

 

Unthinking

·         True believer

·         Blindly obedient

·         Useful idiot

·         Heedless of costs and benefits

·         Reckless

·         Loose cannon

·         Naive about consequences

·         Heedless of costs and benefits

 

Reflective

 

Views studied and well considered

·         Opportunistic actions

·         Cynic

·         Not spiritual

·         Looks for the bad

·         Sneers at the good

·         Often cowardly

·         Aware of costs and benefits

·         Principled actions

·         Not cynical

·         Spiritual

·         Looks for the good

·         Regrets the bad

·         Must be brave

·         Aware of costs and benefits

Thoughts on Group Thought versus Independent Thought

The Unreflective Conformist

The unreflective conformist is not a deep thinking individual, and has an unconsidered adherence to popular views. They go with the flow, and don’t question much of anything. They are really pretty heedless of the implications of the positions that they take. We might regard them as:

  • True believers
  • Blindly obedient
  • Useful idiot
  • Heedless of costs and benefits

The Reflective Conformist

The reflective conformist has studied and considered the positions that he espouses. He does so in rather cynical fashion. He may not believe what the group believes, or he may believe, but he seeks his own advantage over concerns for truth or integrity. Consider these folks as having these characteristics:

  • Not spiritual
  • Opportunists
  • Cynical
  • Looks for the bad
  • Sneers at the good
  • Maybe cowardly
  • Aware at some level of the costs and benefits of conformity and dissidence

The Unreflective Dissident

The unreflective dissident seems to be a contrarian, but is not very sophisticated in his understanding of the issues, an unthinking sort of dissidence. You might characterize such a person as:

  • Reckless, a bit of a loose cannon
  • Shoots from the lip
  • Naive about consequences
  • Heedless of costs and benefits of conformity and dissidence

The Reflective Dissident

The reflective dissident has studied and well considered his positions and the consequences of speaking out. He might be characterized as follows:

  • Principled actions
  • Not cynical
  • Spiritual
  • Looks for the good
  • Regrets the bad
  • Must be brave
  • Aware of costs and benefits

This as I have said is a bit of a caricature, but it has some truth as well I believe.

Finding Truth

I have given up on epistemology and ontology as being mostly not useful in understanding the world, but there is much to be learned about the psychology and sociology of belief.

There are psychological mechanisms underlying group think. These would include, in no particular order:

  • Group loyalties
  • Indoctrination and propaganda
  • Cultural beliefs
  • Cognitive bias

Each is worth an extended discussion but I will leave that for another time. The list is incomplete in any case.

Random Thoughts on Truth and Belief

The individual, conformist or dissident, may be wrong. The group, mainstream or contrarian, may be wrong.

Dissidents may be alone at first but eventually they may find a group of more of less like-minded folks. Are they then just subject to a different group think?

The history of the world, science included, is a history of mistaken beliefs. Mutually contradictory views of people can not be completely right. It goes to say that at most one of mutually contradictory opinions may be correct but it does not follow that any are correct.

The number of ways of being wrong must vastly exceed the number of ways of being right. We call this Murphy’s Law I believe.

Are you a dissident or just a crank? Are you a rationalist, or conspiracy theorist? There is seldom an objective test for any of these. Although some believe they can make such judgements reliably, I suspect that they are often kidding themselves.

Thoughts on Evidence and Reasoning

Evidence must be interpreted within the framework of what you currently believe. However, you will probably never have all of the evidence. Also, evidence coming at a later date may change your evaluation of events. Evidence must be assessed for reliability, provenance, its overall worth and it will be subject to interpretation, with a strong component of subjectivity.

Thoughts on Costs and Benefits

There may be costs and benefits to holding fast to your views, regardless of the truth of your beliefs. There are costs and there are benefits to being a group thinker, and also to being an independent thinker. Below I suggest some possibilities in a matrix.

Conformity

 

Dissidence
Costs There are costs to being a conformist:

·         Creative thought may be squelched

·         You may follow the herd over the metaphorical cliff

·         May be more less ethical, failing to call out malfeasance

·         End up in collusion with malefactors, perhaps criminal actions, becoming complicit

·         If the group is wrong about things, you may not find the flaws and feel free to point them out.

·         You may suffer stress if you realize you are living a lie

 

 

There are costs to being a dissident. Dissidence is often punished if openly expressed:

·         Social penalties, loss of relationships, marginalization, alienation from your fellows

·         Health impacts (stress, and now, denial of treatment for the dissidents)

·         Psychological (stress, self-esteem, doubts, anger, depression)

·         Financial penalties

·         Career penalties

·         Legal troubles

Benefits There are benefits to being a conformist

·         Conformity is rewarded by the group

·         Your career may benefit

·         People will accept you as one of the group

·         By going along, you may get along

There are benefits to being a dissident

·         Creative thought may be encouraged

·         Seeing more clearly

·         Service to the world if you are right and you message is heard

·         Way to avoid the march of folly

·         May be more ethical, calling out malfeasance

·         Avoid collusion with malefactors, perhaps criminal actions, avoid complicity

·         Most big advances in the world, science, technology, art, and so on, are due to folks who departed from the standard consensus about reality, and saw things with fresh eyes.

·         If the group is wrong about things, only those of independent minds will find the flaws and point them out.

 

Below, I briefly discuss the costs and benefits to both conformity and dissidence, with examples.

Costs of Conformity

 There are costs to being a conformist:

  • Creative thought may be squelched
  • You may follow the herd over the metaphorical cliff
  • May be more less ethical, failing to call out malfeasance
  • End up in collusion with malefactors, perhaps criminal actions, becoming complicit
  • If the group is wrong about things, you may not find the flaws and feel free to point them out.
  • You may suffer stress if you realize you are living a lie

Benefits of Conformity

There are reasons why someone is happy being a conformist, there are benefits to not rocking the boat. Conformity is rewarded by the group in various ways. For instance:

  • People will accept you as one of the group
  • By going along, you will get along
  • You won’t have to think as hard
  • You will avoid the unease resulting from being the odd man out
  • Your career may benefit
  • Your social life may benefit
  • You will be seen as a “team player”

Costs of Dissidence

 There are costs to being a dissident. Dissidence is often punished if openly expressed:

  • There may be social penalties such as the loss of relationships, marginalization, alienation from your fellows
  • There can be health impacts due to stress, and as is happening now, denial of treatment for dissidents
  • There can be psychological with stress, lowered self-esteem, doubts, anger and depression
  • There might be financial penalties due to loss of career, or in current times, loss of job and no unemployment insurance
  • There might even be legal troubles if you rock the boat too much

Benefits of Dissidence

On the plus site, there are benefits to being a dissident. These might include:

  • More creativity.
  • Seeing the world more clearly
  • Most of the big advances in the world in science, technology, art, and so on, are due to folks who departed from the consensus about reality, and saw things with fresh eyes.
  • Helping make the world a better place, providing that you are right and your message is heard
  • Preventing people from taking a march of folly. If the group is wrong about things, only those of independent minds will find the flaws and point them out.
  • Acting in a ethical manner, being a whistle blower and calling out malfeasance
  • Not colluding with bad actors, perhaps criminals, avoiding complicity

I suppose that I could expand on these points with concrete examples. This would of course require some actual research, references, time and effort. I will leave it as it is for now.

[1] My mother insisted that if she said “salt,” I would have to say “pepper.”  Things have not changed much over the decades, except I am more aware that I may be full of it

B.C. GOVERNMENT BACKS DOWN ON FORCED VACCINES FOR HEALTH PROFESSIONALS

B.C. GOVERNMENT BACKS DOWN ON FORCED VACCINES FOR HEALTH PROFESSIONALS
Several weeks ago, Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry told all B.C. Health Professionals they would have to get vaccinated if they wanted to continue practicing.  Today, March 7, she and the BC government completely backed away from that order.  One reason the government backed down is that many of the affected groups hired lawyers to protect their rights.  
 
Below are a few quotes from a letter the legal firm Doak Shirreff, hired to represent ‘a large group of BC psychologists’ sent to the Legal Services Branch of the Ministry of Justice and Attorney General.  Many of the comments in this letter raise serious questions about what the people of British Columbia have been told over the past many months by our media and governments.  
1..  “We represent a large group of B.C. psychologistswho are very concerned about the Announcement and the harmful 
effect it will have on themselves, their staff, their patients and the general public if they are required to be vaccinated for 
COVID19 as of March 24, 2022 in order to be able to continue to work ..
 
2..  “Our clients have worked safely throughout the pandemic, without any evidence of increased risk of infectionor 
transmissionbetween themselves and theirstaffor their patients.”
 
3..  “Dr. Bonnie Henry has acknowledged that the COVID-19 vaccines do not prevent infection or transmission of the virus. 
In preamble G. of her November 18, 2021 health order … she admitted that vaccinated people could still be infected 
with, and transmit the virus.”
 
4.. “Careful inspection of the recent COVID-19 cases counts and vaccination status in recent data fromPublic Health Ontario 
also shows higher rates of COVID-19 in the double vaccinated population than the unvaccinated population, even when 
adjusted per capita.”
 
5.. “There is good evidence to suggest that natural immunity is much stronger and durable than any limited protection offered 
by the vaccines. A comprehensive paper written by many of Canada’s top scientists and academics in immunogenetics, 
immunotoxicology, viral immunology, molecular virology, pathobiology, neuroscience and neurology, referencing 
numerous peer-reviewed published studies, confirms this fact.”
 
6.. “Anarticle published in the Lancet in January 2022 indicatesthat recent studies show that there is no significant difference 
in transmission of the virus between vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. Another study published in the Lancet on 
February 7, 2022concluded that natural immunity … provides far superior protection than vaccination.”
 
7.. “Many countries have abandoned their vaccine requirements or are in the process of doing so,including:Austria, Iceland, 
United Kingdom, Scotland, Ireland, Denmark, Sweden, Mexico, El Salvador, Finland, Switzerland, the Netherlands, 
Belgium, the Czech Republic, Norway, Italy, Germany, South Africa, Jordan, Israel, Cypress and others. With Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario,Québec, PEI, New Brunswick,and Nova Scotiaalso starting to remove vaccine mandates or announcing that they will be doing so shortly, why is BC going in the opposite direction? What science is BC relying upon that isdifferent from that which is informing other Governments?”
 
8.. “Let us examine all cause mortality data from the randomized control trial data (i.e., gold standard evidence) from Pfizer 
released to the FDA involving over 40,000 participants.Experimental data clearly shows that the vaccine group did not 
save any more lives than the placebo group…”
 
9.. “Data published by the UK Health Security Agency on February 22, 2022 shows that the fully vaccinated account for 9 
out of every 10 COVID-19 deaths in England, and 4 of 5 deaths among the triple-vaccinated. This data does not 
support statements made by Dr. Bonnie Henry that the vaccines are reducing the severity of symptoms in infected 
individuals and in fact discloses a disturbing trend.”
 
10..  “A Freedom of Information request made to the BC government on November 10, 2021, requested information to support 
statements made by Dr. Bonnie Henry in her October 21, 2021 … public health order. . The BC Government replied on February 10, 2022 to advise that no such information or data could be found. 
 
11..A Freedom of Information request made to the BC Government regarding hospitalization figures from January 1, 2015 
up to and including March 31, 2021 resulted in a response from the BC government demonstrating thathospitalization 
numbers have actually decreased since the beginning of the pandemic from what they were in the 5 years before the 
pandemic.
This information contradicts the statements of Dr. Bonnie Henry that BC hospitals experienced a significant 
increase in the number of hospitalizations as a result of Covid 19 patients that was overwhelming the health care system. 
 
12..  “If the B.C. Government intends to proceed with expansion of vaccine mandates to include psychologists in private 
practice, as well as all other healthcare providers, our clients would appreciate receiving the science and information 
that the Government is relying upon to justify its decision” 

 
We look forward to hearing from you. 
Yours truly, 
DOAK SHIRREFF LAWYERS LLP 

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Email to the Governor General of Canada

Please send an email to the Governor General, requesting resignation of the Prime Minister and forward it to friends.

Sample:

Subject: My Non-Confidence in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
To: Mary Simon, Governor General of Canada

 

Your Excellency,

I wish to express my non-confidence in our Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau. Please have him removed because he is a danger to the freedom of the citizens of our beloved country, Canada.

Respectfully yours,
<Name>
<Street Address>
<City>
<Postal Code>

Do not pass the Emergencies Act – Sample Letter to Senators

—– Forwarded Message —–


 
 
👇 Sample letter included below so you don’t have to write anything or better yet, modify to suit.


If the Emergencies Act is approved in Parliament, it must THEN be passed in the Senate. Our fate, and the Truckers fate- lies in their hands.
If you can’t find them there here is Action4Canada’s list of senators address
Writing the Senate is MOST important but also try to cc  your own or all premiers address here

Dear Senators,

As you are aware, our Prime Minister has proposed the Emergencies Act which must first be passed in Parliament and then through the Senate.  As a Canadian citizen, I implore you NOT to pass this Act.  Why?

1)    Section 2 (c) of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms guarantees the freedom of “peaceful assembly.” [1] It is one of the fundamental freedoms protected in the Charter.
2)    The Emergency Act is meant to

protect the “safety and security of the individual, the protection of the values of the body politic and the preservation of the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of the state are fundamental obligations of government; AND WHEREAS the fulfilment of those obligations in Canada may be seriously threatened by a national emergency.”
The truckers are not preventing the government from getting on with the business of governing.  No Ottawa citizen or member of Parliament are being “seriously threatened.” The truckers are protecting the values and freedoms of Canadian citizens that are slowly being eroded, and preserving their rights of bodily autonomy and medical sovereignty.  The truckers’ peaceful protest does not meet the threshold for a “national emergency” as defined in the Act.

3)    These hard-working Freedom Convoy Truckers—the ones who deliver our food and other goods day in and day out– have been peaceful, respectful and law-abiding.  They are not violent nor have they destroyed property.  On the contrary, they have cleared the streets of snow and garbage, and crime in the City of Ottawa has plummeted since their arrival.
4)    As per the request of the Ottawa police, the Convoy has left a lane open for emergency vehicles.  They have stopped the honking of horns.
5)    Theirs is a simple, common sense request at the 2-year mark of this “pandemic”—stop all COVID restrictions which have negatively impacted our children, our economy, our health and our society; restrictions which have been shown to have little, if any, impact on “flattening the curve”.
6)    The pandemic is over.  Omicron creates mild symptoms. It’s time to resume normal life once again without fear.
7)    Our hospitals are not overwhelmed. Period.
8)    These patriotic men and women have left their homes and family for a cause that is held dearly by ALL Canadians. They have inspired a nationwide and international movement in the drive for freedom.  All national and global attention sits squarely on Canada at this historical moment in time.  Where will each of you take your seat in history?

There are a growing number of  countries, states and jurisdictions which have lifted all COVID restriction and yet we are going to war with the people.


Senators, there is no need to escalate what is currently a civil, peaceful, legal protest (albeit with vehicles illegally parked and ticketed).  There is a practical political solution.  It just needs adequate time and patience to unfold.  Please allow it to come to its logical conclusion rather than creating an indelible stain on our Canadian history by passing the Emergencies Act. 

Do not pass the Emergencies Act
I look forward to hearing from you,
Sincerely yours,

Risk – threats and opportunities

From  2020-07-18, in terse point form.

Risk

  • There is a calculus of risk
  • Threats are downside risk
  • Opportunities are upside risks
  • Risk has odds and risk has outcomes
  • Odds are measured as probabilities
  • Outcomes are measured as impacts, favourable and unfavourable
  • We can to some extent manage risk, looking at potential impacts, reducing or enhancing the outcomes.

Risk is the stuff of life

  • There is a yin and yang of risk
  • We can avoid threats but perhaps miss opportunities.
  • We can embrace opportunities and perhaps expose ourselves to threats.
  • There are common everyday risks: to health, travel, jobs, having a shower, climbing a ladder, walking down the stairs, recreation, many domains of life
  • There are rare risks beyond our control in many ways such as natural disasters like tornados and earthquakes
  • Driving a car presents both threat and opportunity
  • The same for swimming in a lake, stepping outside, or staying inside.
  • There is a calculus of risk and opportunity

Who are the pros at risk management?

 

Risk managers may be found as:

  • Disaster response planners
  • Actuaries
  • Project managers
  • Financial experts
  • Statisticians

 

Professionals manage risks in a systematic way. Although they may use a formal plan, methods will differ, according to the discipline and its needs, and the training of the risk manager. A management approach might include the following elements:

 

  1. Plan to manage the risks
  2. Prepare for the execution of the plan
  3. Execute the plan
  4. Revise the plan based on new information

 

Some risk managers, such as project managers, focus mostly on threats. Some, such as investors, focus also on opportunities. Financial forecasters, actuaries, disaster planners, entrepreneurs and surely others, each seek their own balance between threat and opportunity.

Why?

  • Why concern yourself with this?
  • You can get by without using this level of discipline in your daily life.
  • We assess risk all of the time but do we do it rationally?
  • We do informally assess threats and opportunities all of the time in daily living, and in planning for the future.
  • If knowledge of the methods improves the accuracy, gives greater success, there is a better cost benefit.
  • Risk management can give a better response to opportunities and threats.
  • There’s less unnecessary panic and more reasoned actions.
  • Done well a group can be more successful; obviously a good thing.
  • However you don’t have to be a pro to use this thinking.

Odds

 

  • Look at the odds
  • Events have odds, reduce or enhance the odds of events
  • Outcomes have odds, reduce or enhance the odds of outcomes
  • There are ways that things can go wrong and there are ways that things can go right
  • The ways that things can go right is small
  • The ways that things could go wrong is large
  • There is a ratio of good to bad and the ratio is huge
  • There are everyday threats and opportunities
  • There are rare threats and opportunities
  • Black swan events are rare events that we have not been able to anticipate.
  • Odds lead to predictions but these have a poor record of success in many fields.
  • Predictions are based on probabilities
  • We calculate odds based on data or do some intuitive wild ass guess (SWAG)
  • Statistician calculate odds: frequentists calculate statistics one way; Bayesian’s calculate statistics another way

Outcomes

 

  • What are the potential impacts?
  • We can get rewarded, we can get punished
  • Identify positive and negative outcomes

Costs and Benefits

 

Do a cost and benefit analysis on the outcomes

  • There is a cost to managing risk
  • There is a cost to missed opportunities
  • There is a cost to missed threats
  • There is a benefit to realized opportunities
  • There is a benefit to managed threats

 

  Threat Opportunity
Missed Cost Cost
Hit Benefit Benefit

Management Matrix

 

  • Predictability and unpredictability give you odds we can chart
  • We can have impacts on some scale from low to high
  • We can have odds on some scale from low to high
  • Impact with low odds are things we should devote little time to
  • Impact with high odds are things that we should give a lot of tender loving care to
  • Low impact and low odds are things we should not waste our time with
  • Low impact but high odds are something we should devote some time to

 

    Threat Impact
    Low High
Threat Odds High Light management Manage well
Low Ignore Light management

 

    Opportunity Impact
    Low High
Opportunity Odds High Light management Manage well
Low Ignore Light management

 

Managing to a Plan

Plan to manage the risks

 

There is a certain way of thinking about risk

  • Prepare emergency response plans
  • Change the odds – reduce or increase the odds
  • Avoid – avoid negative outcomes
  • Accept – We can accept risk and not try to manage it
  • Mitigate negative outcomes – mitigate negative outcomes
  • Enhance positive outcomes – seek or enhance positive outcomes

Identify threats and opportunities

  • Assess things
  • Look at business and life risks
  • Identify potential events both favourable and unfavourable

Quantify

  • Potential impacts, good and bad
  • Odds for impacts

Prioritize

  • Some risks are manageable, some are not

Decide how to manage

  • Accept
  • Avoid if possible
  • Mitigate if possible

Identify trigger events

  • What are you going to look for, to alert you that some action is needed?

Write it all down

  • Unless you are totally intuitive, with a fantastic memory put your thoughts into written form

Prepare for the execution of the plan

  • Get your ducks in a row
  • Obtain necessary resources and supports
  • Trial runs
  • Train responses
  • Drill responses

Execute the plan

  • Execute response plans
  • Identify potential events both anticipated and unanticipated
  • Look at emergent potential risk both positive and negative
  • Monitor the environment, look for emerging trends
  • Assess ongoing changes
  • Manage the plan and the responses
  • Look for triggers during execution

Revise the plan based on new information

  • In light of ongoing experience, improve the plan
  • Adapt to changed circumstances

Conclusion

  • Which door would you choose? The one that leads to the tiger or the one that leads the diamonds?
  • Black clouds may have a silver lining; it follows that silver linings may have black clouds.
  • Within threats, there may be opportunities and within opportunities, there may be threats.
  • Be cautious, be courageous, and assess your risks well.
  • Life is like that.

 

My current take on the state of the world and Covid-19

Here is my current take on the state of the world and Covid-19. This is just a brief note.

I expect that I will be wrong in some things, but this is where my many hundreds of hours of investigation have led me. I can support all of my views with various lines of evidence, although I have not done so here. Such support would be voluminous, and I suspect very few would have the patience or the interest to wade through it. I do not wish to vastly increase my workload by re-finding the best evidence that I have encountered, so thus this document is incomplete. So shame on me for being lazy. Perhaps at some future time I will be inclined to do so. As it is, you can only take my words as an indication that there may be various avenues for investigation.

As usual, evidence is likely to be incomplete, biased, confounded, contradictory, erroneous, and our interpretations likely to be flawed, for various reasons. Despite that, we do our best.  We don’t have a formal process for evaluating such things, but we try to reason with abduction, reasoning from the best evidence, using the ideas put forth by Charles Sanders Peirce. See: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/abduction/peirce.html

***

I know a few who have not taken the experimental mRNA or DNA gene transfer therapy injections against Covid-19. They are generally bright and very well informed, and have looked at the science. Others I know have taken the shots just so they could participate in society. This latter point is of course is part of a sometimes self-admitted government plan, and amounts to illegal coercion.

Others have swallowed the propaganda without much reflection, and have taken the shots, even those who in the past were aware that governments tell massive lies on a routine basis. Of course, some folks have never achieved that level of legitimate distrust about government and media disinformation.  This may be apropos:

One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. — Carl Sagan

Taking the shots may only put people on a booster shot treadmill, and they may have longer term health risks waiting to bite them in the nether regions. I hope not, but there are many unknowns, with possible threats. This is Risk Management 101, which seems not to be well understood in many quarters.

There are anti-mRNA/DNA shot resistance movements in many countries, and these appear to be growing. Of course, there are many medical professionals, doctors and nurses, on the front lines of the resistance. Why, what is wrong with them! Don’t these uniformed and under-educated idiots trust the science?

Regulatory capture does not begin to explain what is going on with the push for vaccination, and the old and new media moving in lock-step with the politicians. Theories abound, and I am not wedded to any, although I have my suspicions. We do know that some pharmaceutical companies are making vast amounts of money. There is evidence that at least one Aussie politician was  making money on the side as well. Of course we can not know the extent of this, but again, I do harbour suspicions.

Dr. Robert Malone, scientist and medical doctor, and the one (according to my reading of the situation) with the best evidence of being the inventor of mRNA technology, cautions strongly about injecting all but those in the highest risk categories. He is a developer of vaccines, and has excellent medical and scientific credentials. Others, equally well credentialed, advise against it more forcefully, and give their supporting evidence. Some are quite apocalyptic in their predictions of adverse outcomes. This would include the Nobel Prize winning discoverer of the HIV virus, Luc Montagnier. Of course, I hope that these folks are wrong. Still, the number of adverse events, including deaths, is off-the-charts for these gene therapies, compared to all other vaccines over the years. This can be easily verified, if you go to the actual data, as opposed to the propaganda. The greater problem is, the risk of continuing adverse events over the years is unknown. These shots may be an unfortunate gift that keeps on giving.

Having taken a Tentanus booster shot a few months back, you can not really call me an anti-vaxer. I am only interested in safe, effective, and necessary true vaccines. I think that the mRNA/DNA injections fail on all counts. I may take the Novavax vaccine, apparently an actual vaccine, if it is approved, but will have to research it more thoroughly.

I don’t believe that the mRNA or DNA transfer technology that is spuriously called a vaccine is for me. I will not take it, despite the cynical and almost certainly illegal government moves which are, according to various highly credentialed legal scholars in numerous countries, against various constitutions, charters of rights and the Nuremberg code. Various court cases are proceeding in numerous jurisdictions, but they will typically take a long time to come to resolution. There is a lot of time, effort, money and expertise required to win.

The disease Covid-19 is not generally as bad as the propaganda would have it, according to a great deal of data. It can be very bad for some, particularly old people with co-morbidities, mostly nearing the end of life.  Old, overly fat, metabolic problems (which spawn a large number of other problems), generally unhealthy, all put one in a much higher risk category. Sure, others can have poor outcomes as well, but the numbers are highly, highly biased towards the former.

There are charts showing illness and deaths versus age and other factors, based on data. People, according to various surveys, seem to think that the death rate is many tens of times greater than it actually is. Chalk this up as a victory to the media with its scare-mongering. The best numbers seem to come from studies on all-cause mortality, since they are less likely to be cooked. Deaths are about the same as those from a bad influenza season. With regard to deaths, there is a great deal of evidence that the books have been cooked. I believe this to be the case, based on numerous lines of evidence. For instance, see this: Ryan. (2021, October 11). The UK’s National “Crisis”: Age-Adjusted Mortality Is at 2008 Levels [Text]. Mises Institute. https://mises.org/wire/uks-national-crisis-age-adjusted-mortality-2008-levels

There is also some evidence from the UK that deaths were hastened for old people. I have neither accepted nor rejected these claims, but I know parts of the state, in all countries, are fundamentally evil, and these groups can get people do their dirty work in a number of ways. We just have to look at the history of the world to see this again and again. You don’t have to go to Nazi Germany either; there are more current examples. Need I go on?

The test generally used, the PCR test (e.g. up the nose with a swab), is not fit for purpose for diagnosis. Even the CDC in the U.S. has admitted that, and says the PCR test can not distinguish CoV2 from influenza virus. PCR is being phased out, in the U.S., come December 2021 as I remember it. Kerry Mullis, the Nobel Prize winning inventor of the PCR technique, is on record as saying it should never be used for diagnosis. Several court cases have been won in Europe on the basis of the inadequacy of the test. There has been an official slight of hand whereby in a lot of places, a positive PCR test has been conflated with a ‘case.’ This is absolutely bogus, but has resulted in the great inflation of the case numbers. Some estimates by highly credentialed people are that the PCR test run at 40 cycles of amplification will give maybe 97% false positives.

I wrote and published two pieces on the accepted mathematics of testing, showing that false positives are inevitable, the percentage depending on the test, how it is conducted, and the underlying baseline of infection in the population. This is the case for a test of any degree of accuracy The PCR test run at a high number of cycles can pick up small fragments of dead virus and falsely call them positive. Even the infamous fraud Dr. Anthony Fauci is on record for saying that.

Lockdowns are probably not particularly effective in the prevention of viral illnesses, for a variety of reasons. For one review of the evidence, see:

Douglas W. Allen, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada writing in the International Journal of the Economics of Business. Allen, D. W. (2021). Covid-19 Lockdown Cost/Benefits: A Critical Assessment of the Literature. International Journal of the Economics of Business, 0(0), 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1080/13571516.2021.1976051

There are many useful treatments, with evidence for effectiveness from published studies. These have been subject to regulatory interdiction, and doctors promoting and using them have been subject to media hit pieces, along with attacks from their own colleges. This has happened in many countries. Doctors and medical scientists with stellar credentials, outstanding records, have been vilified, in a very coordinated fashion. Doctors have lost their jobs and certification. Why?

Perhaps it has an awful lot to do with political, regulatory, institutional and media capture. Also, in at least some countries, the shots are being used under emergency authorization, since the clinical trials have not been completed. In the U.S. at least, if there are treatments, then emergency authorization is not given according to legislation and regulation. Hence, if other treatments are shown to be effective, the shots will not be authorized for emergency use. This may well be why there are drumbeats against alternative treatments and against those promoting them. Follow the money please.

The level of coordination is astounding, the level of propaganda unprecedented, compared to past thought-control efforts. Also, the propaganda techniques just keep get better and better.

***

None of this means I want to catch Covid19, since nothing is certain with regards to a person’s resilience.  Also, the higher the initial viral load, the worse the outcome may be. For some, the disease is very bad. Here are ways in which a person might increase their protection.

  1. A number of nutraceuticals vastly improve your chances of having at worst a mild infection.  Check out the MATH Plus protocol for instance.
  2. There is a view out there, which may be correct, that flu-season is really the low vitamin D season. Even in the summer, only the beach bums and outdoor labourers get a lot of sunshine vitamin, and in winter, the sun is too feeble to do much of a job. Hence, the supplements.
  3. Improve your personal terrain with measures to increase health and immunity – nutrition, sleep, stress reduction, fitness, weight, and probably other things.
  4. Reduce the viral load by staying away from enclosed spaces with little air circulation, and minimize the time spent in such places.
  5. I used to say wear a mask, wrote and published a couple of articles on this theme, but now, looking at real world data and published studies, the evidence says to me that mask wearing does not seem to actually give much if any protection, and in some cases can cause harm.
  6. Ditto for 6 feet distance, given the way the virus aerosolizes and lingers in the air. Good air circulation is of paramount importance in reducing aerosolized virus I think.
  7. Being out in the sun and wind is good.
  8. Also, there is not much reason to think that people who are not showing symptoms are doing much to spread it. There have been published studies on this for quite a few months – very large studies in at least one case.

All conclusions that I have reached are ultimately derived from evidence: data and studies. This evidence could be wrong, and my interpretations could be wrong. That is just the way things work.

 

They can not all be correct, again

There are more opinions, sometimes camps, on anything you could possibly debate, and some views you would think no intelligent person could debate. Almost any assertion can be found to be made by someone with some presumed expertise in a relevant field. Almost any assertion can be backed up by some interpretation of published studies – probably cherry picked and selectively interpreted. The problem is, since these various assertions and studies contradict each other, they cannot all be true. It does not follow that any are correct. I still stick by my analysis made in my article on experts: https://www.opednews.com/articles/Trusting-the-experts-by-Mike-Zimmer-Epistemology_Expertise_Ideas–Philosophy_Philosophy-200720-688.html