Bibliography for testing and uncertainty

  1. administrator, JHCHS website. “Global Progress on COVID-19 Serology-Based Testing.” Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Accessed September 29, 2020. https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/serology/Serology-based-tests-for-COVID-19.html.
  2. Baratloo, Alireza, Mostafa Hosseini, Ahmed Negida, and Gehad El Ashal. “Part 1: Simple Definition and Calculation of Accuracy, Sensitivity and Specificity.” Emergency 3, no. 2 (2015): 48–49.
  3. Coursera. “Bayes’ Rule and Diagnostic Testing – The Basics of Bayesian Statistics.” Accessed September 29, 2020. https://www.coursera.org/lecture/bayesian/bayes-rule-and-diagnostic-testing-5crO7.
  4. Be Smart Wear A Mask. Accessed October 6, 2020. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KANNNty9V3o.
  5. HubPages. “Chief Science Officer for Pfizer Says ‘Second Wave’ Faked on False-Positive COVID Tests, ‘Pandemic Is Over.’” Accessed September 28, 2020. https://hubpages.com/politics/Pfizer-Chief-Science-Officer-Second-Wave-Based-on-Fake-Data-of-False-Positives-for-New-Cases-Pandemic-is-Over.
  6. Cohen, Andrew N, Bruce Kessel, and Michael G Milgroom. “Diagnosing COVID-19 Infection: The Danger of over-Reliance on Positive Test Results.” Preprint. Epidemiology, May 1, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.26.20080911.
  7. Colombo, Marco, Joseph Mellor, Helen M. Colhoun, M. Gabriela M. Gomes, and Paul M. McKeigue. “Trajectory of COVID-19 Epidemic in Europe.” MedRxiv, September 28, 2020, 2020.09.26.20202267. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267.
  8. Global News. “COMMENTARY: Understanding False Positive and False Negative COVID-19 Tests.” Accessed October 2, 2020. https://globalnews.ca/news/7323725/what-do-false-positive-covid-19-tests-mean/.
  9. “Confusion Matrix – an Overview | ScienceDirect Topics.” Accessed September 30, 2020. https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/computer-science/confusion-matrix.
  10. STAT. “Covid-19 Testing: Overcoming the Challenges,” March 31, 2020. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/31/covid-19-overcoming-testing-challenges/.
  11. D, David M. Green PH, and John a Swets. Signal Detection Theory & Psychophysics. Los Altos Hills, Calif: Peninsula Pub, 1989.
  12. Diamond, George A. “The Wizard of Odds: Bayes’ Theorem and Diagnostic Testing.” Mayo Clinic Proceedings 74, no. 11 (November 1, 1999): 1179–82. https://doi.org/10.4065/74.11.1179.
  13. Diamond, George A. “The Wizard of Odds: Bayes’ Theorem and Diagnostic Testing,” n.d., 4.
  14. Doshi, Peter. “Covid-19: Do Many People Have Pre-Existing Immunity?” BMJ 370 (September 17, 2020). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3563.
  15. “FAQ: Testing for COVID-19 | MIT Medical.” Accessed September 29, 2020. https://medical.mit.edu/faqs/faq-testing-covid-19.
  16. ResearchGate. “Fig. 1.-Signal Detection Theory (SDT) Contingency Table, or “confusion…” Accessed September 30, 2020. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Signal-detection-theory-SDT-contingency-table-or-confusion-matrix-TP-true_fig1_263812021.
  17. Floriano, Idevaldo, Antônio Silvinato, Wanderley M. Bernardo, João C. Reis, Gabriel Soledade, Idevaldo Floriano, Antônio Silvinato, Wanderley M. Bernardo, João C. Reis, and Gabriel Soledade. “Accuracy of the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) Test in the Diagnosis of Acute Respiratory Syndrome Due to Coronavirus: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” Revista Da Associação Médica Brasileira 66, no. 7 (July 2020): 880–88. https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9282.66.7.880.
  18. Gomes, M. Gabriela M., Rodrigo M. Corder, Jessica G. King, Kate E. Langwig, Caetano Souto-Maior, Jorge Carneiro, Guilherme Goncalves, Carlos Penha-Goncalves, Marcelo U. Ferreira, and Ricardo Aguas. “Individual Variation in Susceptibility or Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 Lowers the Herd Immunity Threshold.” MedRxiv, May 21, 2020, 2020.04.27.20081893. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893.
  19. Green, David Marvin, and John A Swets. Signal Detection Theory and Psychophysics. New York: Wiley, 1966.
  20. Grifoni, Alba, Daniela Weiskopf, Sydney I. Ramirez, Jose Mateus, Jennifer M. Dan, Carolyn Rydyznski Moderbacher, Stephen A. Rawlings, et al. “Targets of T Cell Responses to SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus in Humans with COVID-19 Disease and Unexposed Individuals.” Cell 181, no. 7 (June 25, 2020): 1489-1501.e15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2020.05.015.
  21. Harvey, Lew. “Detection Theory.” Psychology of Perception, 2014, 17.
  22. Heneghan, Prof Carl. “How Many Covid Diagnoses Are False Positives? | The Spectator.” Accessed October 6, 2020. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-many-covid-diagnoses-are-false-positives-.
  23. Lockdown Sceptics. “How Likely Is a Second Wave?” Accessed September 28, 2020. https://lockdownsceptics.org/addressing-the-cv19-second-wave/.
  24. Lockdown Sceptics. “How Likely Is a Second Wave?” Accessed September 30, 2020. https://lockdownsceptics.org/addressing-the-cv19-second-wave/.
  25. Lockdown Sceptics. “How Likely Is a Second Wave?” Accessed October 6, 2020. https://lockdownsceptics.org/addressing-the-cv19-second-wave/.
  26. Jefferson, Prof Carl Heneghan & Tom. “Coronavirus Cases Are Mounting but Deaths Remain Stable. Why? | The Spectator.” Accessed October 6, 2020. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/coronavirus-cases-are-mounting-but-deaths-remain-stable-why-.
  27. ———. “It’s a Mistake to Think All Positive Covid Tests Are the Same | The Spectator.” Accessed October 6, 2020. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/it-s-a-mistake-to-think-all-positive-covid-tests-mean-the-same.
  28. Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “On the Psychology of Prediction.” Psychological Review 80, no. 4 (1973): 237–51. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0034747.
  29. learncuriously. “Confused by The Confusion Matrix Part 2: ‘Accuracy’ Is But One of Many Measures of Accuracy….” The Curious Learner (blog), October 27, 2018. https://learncuriously.wordpress.com/2018/10/28/confused-by-the-confusion-matrix-part-2/.
  30. ———. “Confused by The Confusion Matrix: What’s the Difference between Hit Rate, True Positive Rate, Sensitivity, Recall and Statistical Power?” The Curious Learner (blog), October 20, 2018. https://learncuriously.wordpress.com/2018/10/21/confused-by-the-confusion-matrix/.
  31. Lesaffre, Emmanuel, Niko Speybroeck, and Dirk Berkvens. “Bayes and Diagnostic Testing.” Veterinary Parasitology 148, no. 1 (August 2007): 58–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vetpar.2007.05.010.
  32. Lockdown Sceptics. “Lies, Damned Lies and Health Statistics – the Deadly Danger of False Positives.” Accessed October 6, 2020. https://lockdownsceptics.org/lies-damned-lies-and-health-statistics-the-deadly-danger-of-false-positives/.
  33. “Likelihood Ratios and Diagnostic Tests (Bayes’ Theorem) – StatsDirect.” Accessed September 29, 2020. https://www.statsdirect.com/help/clinical_epidemiology/likelihood_ratios.htm.
  34. Lisboa Bastos, Mayara, Gamuchirai Tavaziva, Syed Kunal Abidi, Jonathon R Campbell, Louis-Patrick Haraoui, James C Johnston, Zhiyi Lan, et al. “Diagnostic Accuracy of Serological Tests for Covid-19: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” The BMJ 370 (July 1, 2020). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m2516.
  35. Lourenco, Jose, Francesco Pinotti, Craig Thompson, and Sunetra Gupta. “The Impact of Host Resistance on Cumulative Mortality and the Threshold of Herd Immunity for SARS-CoV-2.” MedRxiv, July 16, 2020, 2020.07.15.20154294. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294.
  36. Macmillan, Neil A. “Signal Detection Theory.” In Stevens’ Handbook of Experimental Psychology: Methodology in Experimental Psychology, Vol. 4, 3rd Ed, 43–90. Hoboken, NJ, US: John Wiley & Sons Inc, 2002.
  37. Macmillan, Neil A., and C. Douglas Creelman. Detection Theory: A User’s Guide. Mahwah, N.J: Psychology Press, 2004.
  38. Mandrekar, Jayawant N. “Simple Statistical Measures for Diagnostic Accuracy Assessment.” Journal of Thoracic Oncology 5, no. 6 (June 1, 2010): 763–64. https://doi.org/10.1097/JTO.0b013e3181dab122.
  39. Nevin, John A. “SIGNAL DETECTION THEORY AND OPERANT BEHAVIOR: A Review of David M. Green and John A. Swets’ Signal Detection Theory and Psychophysics.1.” Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior 12, no. 3 (1969): 475–80. https://doi.org/10.1901/jeab.1969.12-475.
  40. ResearchGate. “(PDF) The Base Rate Fallacy in Probability Judgments.” Accessed September 28, 2020. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223684493_The_Base_Rate_Fallacy_in_Probability_Judgments.
  41. Peak Prosperity. “Perspective on ‘Cases’ and PCR.” Accessed September 30, 2020. https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/perspective-on-cases-and-pcr/.
  42. Peak Prosperity. “Presumptive Positive PCR Test Definition.” Accessed September 30, 2020. https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/presumptive-positive-pcr-test-definition/.
  43. Ramdas, Kamalini, Ara Darzi, and Sanjay Jain. “‘Test, Re-Test, Re-Test’: Using Inaccurate Tests to Greatly Increase the Accuracy of COVID-19 Testing.” Nature Medicine 26, no. 6 (June 2020): 810–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0891-7.
  44. Read “Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations” at NAP.Edu. Accessed September 28, 2020. https://doi.org/10.17226/13062.
  45. “ROC Analysis: Web-Based Calculator for ROC Curves.” Accessed October 11, 2020. http://www.rad.jhmi.edu/jeng/javarad/roc/JROCFITi.html.
  46. “ROC Curves – What Are They and How Are They Used?” Accessed October 4, 2020. https://acutecaretesting.org/en/articles/roc-curves-what-are-they-and-how-are-they-used.
  47. Root, Matthew. “COVID-19 Laboratory Testing Q&As,” n.d., 6.
  48. “Signal Detection Theory.” Accessed September 30, 2020. https://www.cns.nyu.edu/~david/handouts/sdt/sdt.html.
  49. “Signal Detection Theory.” Accessed September 30, 2020. https://www.cns.nyu.edu/~david/courses/perception/lecturenotes/sdt/sdt.html.
  50. “Signal Detection Theory.” Accessed September 30, 2020. https://www.cns.nyu.edu/~david/courses/perception/lecturenotes/sdt/sdt.html.
  51. “Signal Detection Theory – an Overview | ScienceDirect Topics.” Accessed October 3, 2020. https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/computer-science/signal-detection-theory.
  52. “Signal Detection Theory: Signals and Noise | American Association for the Advancement of Science.” Accessed September 30, 2020. https://www.aaas.org/signal-detection-theory-signals-and-noise.
  53. “Signal Detection Theory: The Receiver Operating Characteristic | American Association for the Advancement of Science.” Accessed September 30, 2020. https://www.aaas.org/signal-detection-theory-receiver-operating-characteristic.
  54. “Signals, Sensors, and Data | American Association for the Advancement of Science.” Accessed September 30, 2020. https://www.aaas.org/signals-sensors-and-data.
  55. Šimundić, Ana-Maria. “Measures of Diagnostic Accuracy: Basic Definitions.” EJIFCC 19, no. 4 (January 20, 2009): 203–11.
  56. Surkova, Elena, Vladyslav Nikolayevskyy, and Francis Drobniewski. “False-Positive COVID-19 Results: Hidden Problems and Costs.” The Lancet Respiratory Medicine 0, no. 0 (September 29, 2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30453-7.
  57. Swets, John A. “Detection Theory and Psychophysics: A Review.” Psychometrika 26, no. 1 (March 1, 1961): 49–63. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02289684.
  58. “The Great Covid-19 Versus Flu Comparison Revisited.” Bloomberg.Com, August 6, 2020. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-06/revisiting-how-covid-19-ranks-with-seasonal-flu-and-1918-pandemic.
  59. Treisman, Michel. “Is Signal Detection Theory Fundamentally Flawed? A Response to Balakrishnan (1998a, 1998b, 1999).” Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 9, no. 4 (December 1, 2002): 845–57. https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03196344.
  60. Walsh, James D. “How Reliable Are COVID-19 Tests?” Intelligencer, June 10, 2020. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/how-accurate-are-covid-19-tests.html.
  61. Watson, Jessica, Penny F Whiting, and John E Brush. “Interpreting a Covid-19 Test Result,” 2020, 7.
  62. ———. “Interpreting a Covid-19 Test Result,” 2020, 7.
  63. We Are Being Lied To! Here Is How…, 2020. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ljxah4NrYKU.
  64. “What Is the Diagnostic Accuracy of Antibody Tests for the Detection of Infection with the COVID-19 Virus?” Accessed September 29, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD013652.
  65. Woloshin, Steven, Neeraj Patel, and Aaron S. Kesselheim. “False Negative Tests for SARS-CoV-2 Infection — Challenges and Implications.” New England Journal of Medicine 383, no. 6 (August 6, 2020): e38. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp2015897.

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